SoFi’s earnings beat lifts stock, but should you buy the rally?

SoFi’s earnings beat lifts stock, but should you buy the rally?

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3 min read

SoFi Technologies (SOFI) gave investors fresh reasons to reconsider the fintech stock on Tuesday, reporting better-than-expected Q3 earnings and raising its annual revenue guidance.

The company posted per-share earnings of 18 cents on $1.39 billion in revenue – handily beating 17 cents a share and $1.25 billion that analysts had called for.

Despite the post-earnings surge, however, SoFi shares remain down nearly 40% versus their year-to-date high.

SoFi is getting more business from existing clients

The most encouraging detail for SOFI stock was beneath the headline numbers: existing members opened 51% of new products during the company’s third financial quarter.  

That suggests its expanding financial ecosystem is making customers “deepen” their relationships with the neobank.

Selling another service to an existing customer can improve acquisition economics since the initial marketing investment has already been made.

Plus, it unlocks fresh opportunities to earn revenue across borrowing, spending, and investing.

SoFi’s adjusted EBITDA rose 70% to $469.8 million, outpacing adjusted revenue growth of 44%.

That signals operating leverage: earnings before those adjustments are growing faster than sales.

For shareholders, the implication is encouraging.

SOFI’s investment case increasingly rests on monetizing its client base more efficiently, alongside attracting new users.

Sustaining that combination offers future earnings growth a firmer foundation

SoFi’s lending engine deserves closer scrutiny

Diversification does have limits, though. SoFi’s lending-adjusted revenue increased 68% year-on-year, while Technology Platform revenue fell 24%, partly reflecting a large customer’s departure.

Fee-based revenue reached $570.6 million, but that category includes loan-related fees.

Investors must therefore avoid treating every fee dollar as independent of the credit cycle.

That distinction matters because strong loan demand tells only half the story.

The fintech’s eventual profitability of lending also depends on borrower performance and the “economics of funding,” or distributing those loans.

There is another qualification to Tuesday’s optimism: management raised its revenue outlook but maintained its 2026 adjusted earnings forecast at 61 cents per share.

All in all, the beat strengthens the growth thesis – but investors still need evidence that additional revenue consistently reaches the bottom line.

Faster expansion alone can’t make SoFi stock a buy at any price.

How to play SOFI stock after Q3 earnings?

Management’s new 2027 adjusted EPS outlook of 90 cents – above the 82-cent consensus – gives investors a useful valuation anchor.

At about $16.5, the fintech stock trades at less than 20x that forecast; at $22.50, the multiple would reach 25x.

Even from a technical perspective, SOFI shares rallied past their 20-day moving average (MA) on Tuesday and are now challenging the 50-day MA, with a decisive break above $16.6 expected to further accelerate upward momentum in the near term.

Meanwhile, the fintech’s relative strength index (RSI) in the mid-50s reinforces that it remains far from overbought levels that often trigger profit-taking.

The post SoFi's earnings beat lifts stock, but should you buy the rally? appeared first on Invezz

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